The median server response time (MSRT) is measured per request. Pages have many requests.
% of page view that will see a response worse than the MSRT = (1 - (0.5 ^ N)) * 100%.
Where N is the number of [resource requests / objects / HTTP GETs] per page.
Plug in 42, and you get:
(1 - (0.5 ^ 42)) * 100% = 99.999999999977%
Why 42?
Well, beyond that being the obvious answer, it also happens to be the average number of resource requests per page across top sites according to Google's 4 year old stats, collected across billions of web pages at the time [1]. Things have changed since then, and the current number is much higher, but with anything over 50 resource requests per page, which is pretty much everything these days, both my calculator and excel overflow with too many 9s, and say it's basically 100%. Since I figured 12 9s makes the point well enough, I didn't bother trying a big decimal calculator to compute the infinitesimal chance of someone actually seeing the median or better server response times for a page load in 2014...
Why 42?
Well, beyond that being the obvious answer, it also happens to be the average number of resource requests per page across top sites according to Google's 4 year old stats, collected across billions of web pages at the time [1]. Things have changed since then, and the current number is much higher, but with anything over 50 resource requests per page, which is pretty much everything these days, both my calculator and excel overflow with too many 9s, and say it's basically 100%. Since I figured 12 9s makes the point well enough, I didn't bother trying a big decimal calculator to compute the infinitesimal chance of someone actually seeing the median or better server response times for a page load in 2014...
See "#LatencyTipOfTheDay: MOST page loads will experience the 99%'lie server response" for similar discussion of the 99%'ile.
[1] Sreeram Ramachandran: "Web metrics: Size and number of resources", May 2010.
It's been noted by a few people that this calculation assumes that there is no strong time-correlation of bad or good result. Which is absolutely true. This calculation is valid if every request has an even chance of experiencing a larger-than-median result regardless of what previous results have seen. A strong time correlation would decrease the number of pages that would see worse-than-median results (down to a theoretical 50% in "every response in hour 1 was faster that every result in hour 2" situations). Similarly, a strong time anti-correlation will increase the number of pages that would see a worse-than-median result up to a theoretical 100% (e.g. when every two consecutive response time lie on two opposite sides of the median).
So in reality, if there is some time correlation involved. My number of 9's may be exaggerated. Instead of 99.9999999999% of page views experiencing a response time worse than the median server response time, maybe it's "only" 99.9% of page views that are that really bad. ;-)
Without establishing actual time-correlation or anti-correlation information, the best you can do is act on the basic information at hand. And the only thing we know about the median in most systems (on its own, with no other measured information) 's that the chances of seeing a number above it is 50%.
Discussion Note:
It's been noted by a few people that this calculation assumes that there is no strong time-correlation of bad or good result. Which is absolutely true. This calculation is valid if every request has an even chance of experiencing a larger-than-median result regardless of what previous results have seen. A strong time correlation would decrease the number of pages that would see worse-than-median results (down to a theoretical 50% in "every response in hour 1 was faster that every result in hour 2" situations). Similarly, a strong time anti-correlation will increase the number of pages that would see a worse-than-median result up to a theoretical 100% (e.g. when every two consecutive response time lie on two opposite sides of the median).
So in reality, if there is some time correlation involved. My number of 9's may be exaggerated. Instead of 99.9999999999% of page views experiencing a response time worse than the median server response time, maybe it's "only" 99.9% of page views that are that really bad. ;-)
Without establishing actual time-correlation or anti-correlation information, the best you can do is act on the basic information at hand. And the only thing we know about the median in most systems (on its own, with no other measured information) 's that the chances of seeing a number above it is 50%.
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ReplyDeleteI was diagnosed of herpes 3 years, and ever since then i have been taking prevent outbreaks, burning and blisters, but there was no improvement until i came across testimonies of Dr. Abiodun on how he has been curing different people from different diseases all over the world, then i contacted him. After our conversation he sent me the medicine which i took according to his prescription for up to 2 weeks. After completing the medication i went back to my doctor for another test and the virus was all gone and i was completely cured, since then i have not had any signs of outbreak. I’m filled with joy. With herbal medication Herpes Virus is 100% curable. I refer Dr Abiodun to everyone out there with the virus Tel/Whats-App: Dr Abiodun on https://www.facebook.com/OtaborAbiodunHerbalMedicine/ +2349153551847 working 24 hrs world wide
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Hello viewers all over the world I want to testify of what Dr.USELU did for me. i was having a very notorious and serious sickness called i HERPES 1&2 contracted this sickness from my ex husband and was very in lost of hope i never believed i was going to be cured until i meant this great man called Dr USELU who God send to help me cure my sickness . he prepare herbal medicine for me which i used for 7 days i want you to know that all hope is not lost until everything is done. you can contact on his email address at dr.uselucaregiver@gmail.com now. or whatsapp him on +2347052898482 if you need his help https://druseluherbalhome.simdif.com/
ReplyDeleteFINALLY FREE FROM HERPES VIRUS..I thought my life had nothing to offer anymore because life became meaningless to me because I had Herpes virus, the symptoms became very severe and bold and made my family run from me and abandon me so they won't get infected. I gave up everything, my hope, dreams,vision and job because the doctor told me there's no cure. I consumed so many drugs but they never cured me but hid the symptoms inside me making it worse. I was doing some research online someday when I came across testimonies of some people of how DR Ede cured them from Herpes, I never believed at first and thought it was a joke but later decided to contact him on the details provided and when I messaged him we talked and he sent me his herbal medicine and told me to go for a test after two weeks. Within 7 days of medication the symptoms disappeared and when I went for a test behold I was NEGATIVE by the Doctor Who tested me earlier. Thank you DR Ede because I forever owe you my life and I'll keep on telling the world about you. If you are going through the same situation, worry no more and contact DR Ede via his Email(dredespellcaster@gmail.com) Or WhatsApp him (+2347064290546) He is good too to cure all types of disease and virus. 1 HIV cure 2 cancer 3 diabetes 4 hepatitis 5 herpes. You can contact him if you are having any problems...
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I am so happy, I never believe I will be this happy again, after suffering from Herpes (HSV) which make me lose my job. I never felt sick or have any symptom, till all workers were ask to bring their doctor report, that was how I got tested and found out that am HSV positive, I lost my job because they believed its STD and is incurable. I was so depress and Devastated thinking of committing suicide. I explained this to my friend and she consoled me and gave me hope, she told me about one African Doctor who has the ability to cure diseases with Natural medicinal herbs and roots for 3 weeks. She directed me to Doctor Kabiki and I contact him . I contacted this doctor and told him about my condition and this traditional doctor prepared and ship a product to me and told me to use it for just 3 weeks and after I finish taking the product he told me to go for check up which I did and to my greatest surprise my results were negative, I did the test at three different hospital just to be sure and I was indeed cured from Herpes (HSV). Please help me share this news to others and different people living with STDs and other diseases. Email Doctor Kabiki via drkibakisolutiontemple@gmail.com or you can call his mobile number on +1 407 218 6382
ReplyDeleteI am really happy that i have been cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) with
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ReplyDeleteI WANT TO USE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO THANK THE GREAT SPELL HEALER DR ORIANE FOR HELPING TO CURE ME OF FIBROID AFTER A LONG 3 YEARS FIGHT WITH, HIS HERBS ARE REALLY RELIABLE.
ReplyDeleteI can not believe up to this moment because it was a magic. A great testimony that I have to share with all those having FIBROID problem in the world. I never thought that the treatment could be complete without surgery, I saw the testimony of people on blog sites and on the Facebook page of how Dr. ORIANE is preparing herbal healing. different kind of the disease, and with the help of his herb they were able to shrink their fibroid naturally. I had to try it too and you can not believe that in just a few weeks I started using it, but all my pain stopped gradually. At this moment, I want to tell everyone that I just had a baby last month and that now that I'm thin, I do not I felt worse and went to get a message last week and the doctor confirmed that there was no trace of any fibroid s in my system. Glory to God for leading me to this great Dr. ORIANE. I am so happy to share this testimony. My advice to anyone who thinks there is no herbal remedy for fibroid s is wrong, just contact him for a cure for his email (droriane6@gmail.com). or Whats App him via +2349031652461 and you will be free and free forever, try it and you will not regret it because it really works. I hope to see your testimony soon.
I don't have time beating around the bush, instead I go straight to the point.... So to you doubters I ain't expecting you all to believe my testimony but only the few chosen ones by God. In a short summary, I'm here to tell the whole world that I recently got cured from my long term herpes disease, both the HSV1 and HSV2 through the assistance of Herbalist doctor Oyagu I pray God continually blesses Dr Oyagu in all he does, because he is indeed a very good, nice and powerful doctor. I’m cured of herpes disease at last! Wow I'm so much in great joy because I've never in my life believed herbs works, but meeting doctor Oyagu was an eye opener and he made me believe that herpes truly got a complete cure. I used the doctor's herbal medicine for just two weeks and I was totally cured from both my HSV1 and HSV2. I'm so excited. For help and assistance in getting rid of your herpes virus you can Call/WhatsApp doctor Oyagu on his telephone number: +2348101755322 or for more inquiries you can as well contact the doctor on EMAIL: oyaguherbalhome@gmail.com
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